The Obama Presidency Quarterly, Autumn 2009 Issue:
President Barack Obama has been in office only nine months, and he's already being heavily tested in the form of two wars, a bad economy, and a domestic battle of health-care reform. Many critics are claiming that the president won't succeed in handling these and other issues and that all this doesn't bode well for his 2012 re-election bid. Others, however, strongly disagree with this negative assessment of the Obama presidency thus far. In fact, some even believe that the president can win votes in the region of the country that was the most difficult for him in 2008-- the South.
One of these optimistic individuals is talkingpointsmemo.com blogger Steve Katz. In his June 3, 2009, 6:24 PM, post, 'Racism And Obama's Reverse "Southern Strategy",' Katz argues that the president actually has a good shot at breaking the GOP's Southern stranglehold during the next election cycle. According to Katz, the Republican Party has dominated Southern politics since the 1960s, when President Lyndon B. Johnson-- a Texas Democrat-- signed major Civil Rights legislation. As a result, GOP candidate used this fact to zero in on the fear-based ideology of conservative Southern whites in 1968. The South has voted mostly Republican at the national level ever since. (The only Democratic presidential candidates who've fared well in the region since 1968 were Georgian Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Arkansas native Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.)
More than 40 years later, things are beginning to change. Katz cites New York Times columnist Bob Herbert's 2005 article "Impossible, Ridiculous, Repugnant" in order to substantiate this claim. Herbert explains that the GOP's four-decade Southern success is attributable to its appeals to racism disguised as appeals to conservative values. That disguise, writes Herbert, is wearing thin. Herbert says, "The truth is that there was very little that was subconscious about the GOP's relentless appeal to racist whites. Tired of losing elections, it saw an opportunity to renew itself by opening its arms wide to white voters who could never forgive the Democratic Party for its support of civil rights and voting rights for blacks." And this revelation of the Republicans' ulterior motives is only one reason Democrats could regain power in the South in 2012.
That having been said, why might an Obama Reverse "Southern Strategy" ultimately be successful? For starters, increasingly bizarre behavior and outlandish claims from the likes of conservative "leaders" and "voices," such as: Rush Limbaugh, Dick Cheney, Bill O'Reilly, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), and Sarah Palin-- not to mention the antics of those at faux-townhall meetings-- have seriously tarnished the Republican brand. Secondly, since taking office in January, the president has reached out to GOP moderates and followed the Lincoln model of appointing rivals, including Utah governor Jon Huntsman (ambassador to China) and former Illinois Republican congressman Ray LaHood (transportation secretary), to diplomatic and cabinet positions. In addition, President Obama has the support of moderate-to-conservative members of his own party. For example, the first person to endorse Obama's candidacy was Virginia governor and DNC chairperson Tim Kaine, a pro-life, pro-Second-Amendment rights Democrat. Furthermore, Obama won three of the largest Southern states-- Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida-- handily in 2008. Most importantly, despite an often ugly history, the South is changing. Unlike the Old South, the New South is more ethnically diverse, educated, and middle class. For these reasons, Team Obama could possibly emerge victorious in the South following the next presidential election.
